Parece que los mercados descuentan aquello de que «lo peor ha pasado». Parece también que el optimismo quiere ser el protagonista casi más por necesidad psicológica que por datos reales, pero me cuesta, me cuesta pensar a corto plazo que una crisis tan estructural como la inmobiliaria mundial pueda pasar en tan pocos meses. Ojala me equivoque.
Diría que para que mejore mi visión del riesgo tendría que ver algunas cosas como éstas :
1.- que la inflación real dejara de ser una amenaza: estamos viendo las subidas del barril de crudo muy por encima de 105 USD, aunque hoy las reservas en EEUU han aumentado, tambien hemos visto dispararse los precios de las materias primas agrícolas y el precio de los metales preciosos. Ante éste escenario, el lógico que el BCE se resista a la bajada de tipos esperada en Europa, una medida impopular pero de momento, necesaria. Con lo que una medida de politica monetaria global expansiva de bajada de tipos parece alejarse de momento. Si recordamos, es el mismo o parecido escenario el que vivimos en el año 2000, con tipos americanos históricamente bajos (1,5% ) ante un tipo europeo que se resistía a bajar (4%).
2.- que los bancos vuelvan a ejercer de bancos : ya he comentado muchas veces que la crisis de liquidez es más bien una crisis de confianza ( «¿será verdad lo que dices que tienes..»?)
3.- que el consumo americano ( el 70% de su PIB) se reactive
4.- que a nivel empresarial exista de verdad un ajuste a perspectivas de beneficios más realistas.
De momento, el mercado inmobiliario no parece haber tocado fondo, la confianza del consumidor global es la más baja desde el año 2001, hemos visto unas cifras de empleo muy desalentadoras ( en España, un aumento de 37.500 parados más en abril 08), y debido a las restricciones de crédito por parte de los bancos, la politica monetaria expansiva ( en EEUU ) tardará en surtir efecto.
Así pues, la disyuntiva del BCE pasaría por dejar los tipos como están, al 4%, y si acaso en el ultimo trimestre de 2008 rebajas del entorno 0,25pb.
Pero no todo son malas noticias , en el ámbito microeconómico:
Los PER de los principales indices de referencia, no están caros : DJ Euro Stoxx 50, MSCI AC Asia ex Japan, s&P 500.. todos por debajo de 14 veces. Y la rentabilidad por dividendo, de media europea, ronda el 4% con lo que , curiosamente la aversión al riesgo a renta variable debería ir disminuyendo si éstos datos continuan también en el 3T08.
A pesar de las pequeñas euforias bursátiles que estamos viendo, la cautela sigue siendo el mejor aliado.
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